Below is who I think will finish in the top 5 in each class at San Diego and why.
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1st Place: Shane McElrath. Shane typically gets nearly perfect starts and I think we see the same thing this weekend at San Diego. He won this race last year and I think he gets the win and crawls back into this title chase.
2nd Place: Aaron Plessinger. Aaron is on another level right now. He won last week in Oakland despite being very sick, so sick he could barely talk on the podium after the race and skipped the press conference after the race. He still won…… He is the guy to beat right now. Unfortunately he doesn’t always get very good starts and I think that holds him back a little bit considering Shane McElrath always seems to get good starts. I think he is slightly faster than Shane but just doesn’t have the time needed to get the win this week.
3rd Place: Joey Savatgy. This was a hard pick for me between Joey Savatgy and Adam Cianciarulo. I think Adam will be a little faster but with all the bad luck he has had and the not great starts I figured Joey would be a safer bet. Joey is just about always between 2nd and 4th place at the end of the main event and he always has a good chance at landing on the podium. I think he rides well but I feel that McElrath and Plessinger are just a little faster.
4th Place: Adam Cianciarulo. Adam will be top 3 in speed and possibly even the fastest. He ALWAYS seems to either have a bad start or bad luck though. I don’t know where he starts in this race but I see him finishing 4th place although I would love to see him get a win soon. On a side note, I think Adam is your fastest qualifier.
5th Place: Chase Sexton. This was a really difficult pick for me between Sexton, Hill, and Craig but my gut is telling me to go with Sexton. He is getting more and more confident as he gets to run with the big dogs more often. I would not be surprised to see Hill or Craig take the 5th place position but I think Sexton gets the spot and surprises everyone with a couple of the lap times he puts in during the day.
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1st Place: Ken Roczen was so close to getting the win last week in Oakland and I think it is his time this week in San Diego. He won here last year and I think he puts in an impressive ride to take home his first win of the year. He was pretty bummed last week and I’m sure he is as motivated as he can possibly be to win.
2nd Place: Jason Anderson is having an incredible season so far and is surprising everyone including myself, but he is the real deal and he is here to stay. I think he is good at San Diego but I just don’t think Roczen will be denied the win this week.
3rd Place: Cole Seely was leading last week in Oakland and crashed while leading which was so disappointing. I was really excited to see Cole fight for his first win of the year but luck just wasn’t on his side. I think he is confident and fired up after last weekend and although I don’t see him getting the win, I do see him landing on the podium.
4th Place: Justin Barcia is really feeling good on this new Yamaha. He was flying past people last week in Oakland and if he were to have a better start he really could have won that race. I don’t know if he will be that good again but I know he is feeling confident after having a ride like that and will come out swinging at San Diego. Also look to see if you see any fireworks with Tomac and Barcia throughout the night as Barcia left Tomac on the ground after passing him last week at Oakland (although the pass did not seem to be dirty in my opinion).
5th Place: Eli Tomac could be anywhere this weekend but I am picturing him around 5th for whatever reason I’m not sure. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he wins the main event but at the same time I wouldn’t really be that surprised to see him finish outside of the top five either. Obviously he wants to win but as far as the championship goes he is most likely too far behind to win the title and that could possibly make him less motivated to go out and win this week compared to some of the other competition. I’m really curious to see how Eli does this week.
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